Medicare drug plan premiums set to rise 50% for enrollees who stay put, KFF finds
The average premium for a stand-alone Medicare drug plan would climb from $34 to $51 a month in 2027 for people who keep their current plan, after federal regulators ended a subsidy that had held premiums down.

The average monthly premium for stand-alone Medicare Part D prescription drug plans is projected to rise 50% next year, from $34 in 2026 to $51 in 2027, according to an analysis KFF published on October 301. The projection assumes enrollees stay in the plans they have now. KFF links much of the increase to the end of a federal program that paid plans extra subsidies and capped how fast their premiums could rise.
The figures matter now because Medicare open enrollment is under way. It runs from October 15 to December 7, 2026, according to the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services (CMS)2. Enrollees who do not compare plans before the deadline will be carried into 2027 at their plan's new price.
Who pays more
KFF counted 13.6 million stand-alone plan enrollees who do not receive the low-income subsidy. Of those, 10.4 million (76%) would pay a higher premium in 2027 if they stay put, the analysis found. For 2026, 56% faced an increase.
The size of the increases has also grown. About 2.4 million enrollees would see their premium go up by more than $50 a month, compared with 38,000 people in 2026, according to KFF. No stand-alone plan will be offered at a $0 premium for 2027, so the 4.1 million people in zero-premium plans this year would pay something next year unless they move.
Some of the largest national plans show the pattern. KFF reported that the AARP Medicare Rx Preferred plan, offered by UnitedHealthcare, rises from $126.00 to $204.50 a month, an increase of 62%. Humana Premier Rx goes from $119.60 to $137.40.
Deductibles rise as well. The standard Part D deductible increases from $615 in 2026 to $700 in 2027, and the average deductible for stand-alone plan enrollees goes from $540 to $643, according to the analysis. KFF found that 99.8% of stand-alone plan enrollees would face a deductible next year, up from 96%.
By comparison, KFF projected the average drug premium in Medicare Advantage plans that include drug coverage at $9 a month in 2027.
Why premiums are rising
CMS created the Part D Premium Stabilization Demonstration as plans adjusted to changes in the drug benefit. For 2026 it gave participating plans extra subsidies and limited monthly premium increases to $50, according to KFF. CMS discontinued the program after 2026.
CMS had flagged the change. In a September 28 release, the agency described the program's "planned discontinuation in 2027" and projected that the average stand-alone plan premium would rise from about $35.09 to $36, an increase of less than $1. KFF said CMS did not explain how it reached that figure. The gap between the two estimates likely reflects different assumptions about switching: KFF's $51 assumes no one changes plans, and KFF said it expects the actual 2027 average to come in lower once enrollees move to cheaper options.
What comes next
Open enrollment closes on December 7. CMS typically reports enrollment results after the period ends, which will show how many people changed plans and what the average premium actually turned out to be. The 2027 premium for Medicare Part B, which covers doctor visits and outpatient care, has not yet been announced.



